Nassim Nicholas Taleb – What is a “Black Swan?” Description video: Complete video at: http://fora.tv/2008/02/04/Future_Has_Always_Been_Crazier_Than_We_Thought\r\n\r\nAuthor Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses the central theme of his bestselling book, \”The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.\”\r\n\r\n—–\r\n\r\nThe Future Has Always Been Crazier […]
Nassim Nicholas Taleb – What is a “Black Swan?”
Complete video at: http://fora.tv/2008/02/04/Future_Has_Always_Been_Crazier_Than_We_Thought\r\n\r\nAuthor Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses the central theme of his bestselling book, \”The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.\”\r\n\r\n—–\r\n\r\nThe Future Has Always Been Crazier Than We Thought with Nassim Nicholas Taleb.\r\n\r\nAuthor Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses his book, The Black Swan in relation to predicting the future, learning from the consequences of the unknown, and the power of randomness.\r\n\r\nNassim Nicholas Taleb is an essayist, belletrist, and researcher only interested in one single topic, chance (particularly extreme and rare events, the \”Black Swans\” i.e. outliers); but it falls at the intersection of philosophy/epistemology (skepticism; knowledge about the dynamics of history; inferential claims), philosophy/ethics (stoicism facing random events; theories of nonhedonic happiness), mathematical sciences (probability theory, statistical physics), social science/finance (opacity \u0026 incomplete information in economics), and cognitive science (the mental biases making us \”fooled\” by randomness). He mainly derives his intuitions from a 2-decade long and intense practice of derivatives trading (\”nondull\” activities with plenty of randomness).\r\n\r\nTaleb is currently a researcher at London Business School. He the Deans Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty University of Massachusetts at Amherst, Fellow in Mathematics in Finance, Adjunct Professor of Mathematics at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences of New York University (since 1999), and research fellow, Wharton School Financial Institutions Center, and Chairman, Empirica LLC.\r\n\r\nTaleb held senior trading positions with trading houses in New York and London and operated as a floor trader before founding Empirica LLC. His degrees include an MBA from the Wharton School and a Ph.D. from the University of Paris. He is the author of Dynamic Hedging, Fooled by Randomness, and The Black Swan.
The oil market may face the “black swan”
The global oil market may face a new black swan, analyst S&P Global.
«The oil market is highly dependent on any traffic disruption in the Strait of Hormuz», – Dave Ernsberger, chief executive of S company, told CNBC on Thursday&P Global Commodity Pricing products.
The Strait of Hormuz is the most important channel that oil producers use to transport crude oil from the Middle East to markets around the world. At its narrowest point, it is 21 miles wide. For 2018 this waterway transported about 21 million barrels of black gold daily.
«The disruption of this traffic could be a panic event in the markets that we haven’t seen in the last 10 or 15 years.», – said Ernsberger.
Analysts told CNBC this week that oil prices will skyrocket to more than $ 100 if Iran will block the strait.
«The whole world is now watching the situation», – added Ernsberger. The tension between Washington and Tehran broke out last week after how American airstrike killed the general of Iran. Iran responded fired over a dozen ballistic missiles on American targets in Iraq, as a result of which no one was harmed.
The situation seems to have softened after the president’s statement Donald Trump that more economic sanctions will be imposed on Iran, not military retaliation.
«Iran’s actions will be of interest to experts in the coming months. Everyone knows that the strait is a vulnerable point, which in such a political situation can really play an important role.», – he said.